Saturday, March 13, 2021

Milford NH Annual Town Voting History

 

This is a comparison of voter turnout for the March elections in Milford. The actual yearly totals for the years 2002 to 2021 are shown below.

* We had 2194 voters at the March election in 2021. This is slightly below the 2355 that we averaged in the past five years, and slightly above the 2107 that we averaged in the past ten years, so all in all, it was a fairly typical turnout. Last year's turnout of 3153 was an extreme outlier in that it was the highest turnout since 2002, so comparing this year to only the results for last year is not a good comparison.

* The voter checklist is purged every ten years, and this year is scheduled to be a purge year. The supervisors of the checklist normally maintenance the checklist each year following specific procedures. They can't arbitrarily remove names from the checklist; they have to have a specific reason to do so. There are legal situations where a name on the checklist is for someone that is no longer eligible to be on the checklist (i.e. phantom names), and the decennial purge eliminates these phantom names. An example of phantom names would be for people that lived in Milford but died somewhere else and their death did not get legally fed back to the Supervisors of the checklist. Another example would be for someone that lived in Milford, then moved somewhere else and their move out of town did not get legally fed back to the supervisors of the checklist. The purge process tries to identify the names that really do not belong on the checklist and then removes them.

The checklist purge occurs in years that end in a "1", so an example of a purge reduction is the change in the checklist counts from 2011 to 2012. There were 10,925 names in 2011, and this was reduced to 8,679 in 2012, which is a reduction of 2,246 names or 21.6%. If we have the same percentage reduction in the coming year's purge, then the checklist will drop 2,706 to 10,073 at the end of next year's voting session.

In 2021, the voter turnout percentage was 17.2%, below both the 20.8% that we averaged in the past five years, and the 19.9% that we averaged in the past 10 years. As the number of phantom names on the checklist steadily climbs during the ten years between purges, then the voter turnout percentage slowly drops as the turnout is being compared to higher and higher numbers. As this is the last year in the cycle, then the effects of this process are most extreme for this year. So, if you assume that there are 2,500 phantom voters on the checklist at this time, then the real voter turnout percentage this year would be (2194 / 10,279) or 21.3%. This is still a very low number as compared to presidential elections, but it is better than the 17.2% that is what is reported.

* There were 72 attendees at this year's deliberative session, which is less than both the five-year average of 97 and the ten-year average of 88. It is likely that concerns about covid-19 caused perhaps 20 to 25 people to not attend this year. That is unfortunate, but it is my opinion that holding the deliberative session at the regular time was a better choice than the two alternatives that were available, which were to have a zoom meeting where the voters did not have the opportunity to actually vote, or to delay the session to perhaps May which would have delayed the implementation of the votes.

These are the actuals for the years 2002 to 2021:

Year, Votes, Checklist, Percentage, Deliberative Session Voters

2021, 2194, 12,779, 17.2%,  72
2020, 3153, 11,946, 25.4%,  92
2019, 2127, 11,501, 18.5%, 121
2018, 1919, 11,157, 17.2%, 100
2017, 1865, 11,149, 16.7%,  84
2016, 2711,  9,906, 26.1%,  89
2015, 2174,  9,864, 22.0%,  99
2014, 1770,  9,622, 18.4%,  76
2013, 1528,  9,668, 15.8%,  76
2012, 1818,  8,679, 20.9%,  76
2011, 2001, 10,925, 18.3%,  68
2010, 2048, 10,765, 19.0%, 100
2009, 1682, 10,809, 15.6%,  84
2008, 1723, 10,464, 16.5%,  91
2007, 2149, 10,135, 21.2%, 163
2006, 1984, 10,035, 18.8%, 111
2005, 2743, 10,069, 27.2%, 193
2004, 2768,  8,616, 32.1%, 146
2003, 2536,  8,373, 30.3%, 184
2002, 3153,  7,758, 40.6%, 162

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